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Review Question - QID 216987

QID 216987 (Type "216987" in App Search)
A researcher is conducting real-world trials of a novel screening method for the early detection of lung cancer. They enroll a group of 1000 patients with over 50 pack-years of smoking history and know that the baseline prevalence of early lung cancer in these patients should be around 10%. Previous smaller trials of the screening test showed that the sensitivity of the test is 0.94 and the specificity is 0.85. If these test characteristics remain stable, which of the following is the most likely number of false negatives in this study?

6

0%

0/0

94

0%

0/0

135

0%

0/0

765

0%

0/0

771

0%

0/0

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The number of false negatives can be calculated as false negatives = total enrolled * prevalence * (1 - sensitivity) = 1000 * 0.1 * (1 - 0.94) = 6.

The number of enrolled patients who are positive or negative in a study can be estimated using the population prevalence of a disease. Once separated, the probability that a positive patient will be detected correctly by a test is summarized by the test sensitivity, which is defined as true positives / (true positives + false negatives). False negatives are defined as those patients who have a disease but inaccurately test negative. For a screening test to be maximally effective, the sensitivity should be extremely high so that almost all truly positive patients will be detected, resulting in very few false negatives.

Incorrect Answers:
Answer 2: 94 is the number of true positives and can be derived by true positives = total enrolled * prevalence * sensitivity = 1000 * 0.1 * 0.94 = 94.

Answer 3: 135 is the number of false positives and can be derived by false positives = total enrolled * (1 - prevalence) * (1 - specificity) = 1000 * (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.85) = 1000 * 0.9 * 0.15 = 135.

Answer 4: 765 is the number of true negatives and can be derived by true negatives = total enrolled * (1 - prevalence) * (specificity) = 1000 * (1 - 0.1) * 0.85 = 1000 * 0.9 * 0.85 = 765.

Answer 5: 771 is the number of total test negatives and can be derived by total negatives = true negatives + false negatives = total enrolled * (1 - prevalence) * (specificity) + total enrolled * prevalence * (1 - sensitivity) = 1000 * (1 - 0.1) * 0.85 + 1000 * 0.1 * (1 - 0.94) = 765 + 6 = 771.

Bullet Summary:
The number of false negatives expected in a study can be calculated using total enrolled * prevalence * (1 - sensitivity).

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